The United States has significantly reduced its imports from Nigeria by more than 40%, raising alarms about the stability of the trade relationship between the two countries. According to recent data from the US Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, imports of Nigerian goods plunged from $639 million in June to $379 million in July 2025—a sharp 41% decline.
This decline in Nigerian imports comes as US exports to Nigeria also dropped, albeit by a smaller margin. Exports to Nigeria fell from $919 million in June to $584 million in July, leading to a surplus of $206 million for the US in July compared to $280 million in June. Despite the dip in exports, the US still maintained a favorable trade balance, marking a net surplus of $781 million for the year to date.
The dip in trade with Nigeria highlights the growing fragility of the nation’s position in the US market. Between January and July 2025, the US exported $3.92 billion worth of goods to Nigeria, while importing only $3.14 billion, leaving a surplus of $781 million. However, July’s marked reduction in Nigerian exports points to a shift in the once-thriving trade relationship.
In contrast, the broader African trade landscape shows a more complex picture. US imports from Africa as a whole surged to $4.47 billion in July, up from $3.67 billion in June. However, exports slipped slightly from $3.37 billion to $3.30 billion during the same period, creating a trade deficit of $1.17 billion, up from $302 million the previous month.
While Africa as a whole has become an increasingly important trade partner for the US, individual country results vary widely. US exports to Egypt remained in surplus, with Washington exporting $847 million against imports of just $290 million. In contrast, South Africa’s trade with the US worsened, with imports reaching $1.99 billion, while exports stood at only $565 million, creating a $1.42 billion deficit.
For Nigeria, the recent decline in exports to the US follows a series of trade policy shifts under President Donald Trump. In late July, President Trump signed an executive order raising tariffs on Nigerian goods from 14% to 15% as part of his broader “reciprocal” tariff regime targeting countries that run trade surpluses with the US. While crude oil, Nigeria’s main export, remains exempt in some cases, other goods have been directly affected by the increase in tariffs, leading to a reduction in demand.
Despite the growing trade challenges, Nigeria’s Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, stated that the government will not rush into retaliatory action. “Nigeria remains responsive; we’re not reacting. We’re focused on the eight-point agenda of President Bola Tinubu. We will continue to support domestic investors and expand market access for Nigerian businesses,” Oduwole said.
Oduwole emphasized that Nigeria is diversifying its economic strategy by boosting non-oil exports and strengthening its position within the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). She highlighted that Nigeria’s non-oil exports grew by 24% in the first quarter of 2025, signaling a growing shift away from reliance on crude oil.
While the US remains a crucial trading partner for Nigeria, Oduwole noted that the country is expanding its trade relationships with other regions, including Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. “We are waiting to see what happens with the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in September. We are also growing exports to other African countries and expanding partnerships with Brazil, China, Japan, and the UAE,” she added.
Dr. Aliyu Ilias, a development economist, pointed out that Nigeria can view the situation as an opportunity to diversify. “Trump’s tariff is not only for Nigeria, but the advantage is that we are now exporting more overall, which is positive for us,” he said.
Ilias suggested that Nigeria should use its position in international alliances like BRICS to reduce vulnerability and foster new partnerships. “We can trade with other partners, as they are also looking for alternative markets. The tariff affecting us is also affecting others, so this could be a good opportunity,” he added.
Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, downplayed the impact of the tariffs, arguing that Nigeria’s trade relationship with the US is not critical to its economy. “Our trade with the US is not that strategic. When anything goes wrong, it’s not as if it will have any fundamental effect on our economy,” Yusuf said.
Yusuf, however, noted that Nigeria’s trade profile remains underdeveloped, dominated by crude oil and a few other commodities. He identified the bigger challenge as the US visa policy, which he believes is more detrimental to business interactions and investment inflows than the tariffs themselves.
The immediate challenge for Nigeria is the impact of the tariffs and the shrinking trade access to the US. However, with a strategic focus on diversification, Nigeria is positioning itself for a more resilient future by expanding trade with other regions and strengthening its non-oil exports.
