By Muhammad Mamman
Nigeria’s economy is in the grip of unprecedented hardship, with soaring inflation and a plummeting naira casting a long shadow over daily life. Two years into President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s tenure, his bold moves to scrap the fuel subsidy—a notorious scam by common consensus—and unify the dual exchange rate have triggered these woes, yet they may prove the lifeline the nation desperately needs.
Admittedly, the pain is palpable. Nigerians are grappling with skyrocketing costs and diminished purchasing power. But let’s not mince words: these reforms were inevitable. For years, successive governments borrowed recklessly, printing trillions in naira through unsustainable “ways and means” advances, merely postponing an inevitable reckoning. Tinubu’s predecessors kicked the can down the road; he chose to confront the crisis head-on. Such audacity deserves recognition—it’s the kind of decisive leadership that halts economic freefall.
True, the stabilisation is underway, but tangible relief for ordinary citizens remains elusive. Nevertheless, history offers reassurance. Tinubu’s track record as Governor of Lagos State from 1999 speaks volumes. In those early days, the city was mired in chaos, with public outcry echoing today’s national discontent. As a member of his inauguration committee, I faced ridicule from friends decrying the administration’s perceived inaction. Concerned, I sought counsel from Dele Alake, then Commissioner for Information and Strategy, only to find journalist Babafemi Ojudu voicing similar worries.
Alake patiently outlined the groundwork being laid—investments in infrastructure, security, and revenue generation. His assurances proved prophetic. By the close of Tinubu’s first term, Lagos had transformed: gleaming developments in transport, healthcare, and education were impossible to ignore. Re-election was a breeze; I chaired the media committee and witnessed the tide turn decisively.
That era also showcased Tinubu’s political acumen. Amid a controversial pact between Afenifere elders and the Obasanjo-led PDP in 2003, Tinubu warned of betrayal. Ignored and isolated—the only Alliance for Democracy governor not endorsed by the elders—he nonetheless triumphed, surviving the PDP’s electoral onslaught. This resilience bolsters my conviction: Tinubu will deliver nationally, just as he did in Lagos.
As the 2027 elections loom, can the opposition derail him? Enter the African Democratic Congress (ADC) coalition, a ragtag alliance of heavyweights like Atiku Abubakar, Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi, and Peter Obi. On paper, it’s formidable; in reality, it’s a house of cards. Strange bedfellows rarely endure. For any shot at victory, they must unite under one banner, shelve egos, and pool resources. Fragmented as they are, they’re merely tilting at windmills.
Consider Atiku: He’d likely dominate an ADC primary, but a general election? Unlikely. 2023 was his golden window—bolstered by covert APC dissenters, fuel shortages, and the infamous naira crunch engineered to sabotage Tinubu. Yet, Peter Obi’s Labour Party surge split the vote, relegating Atiku to second place. That ship has sailed.
Obi, the 2023 sensation, faces steeper odds. Snagging the ADC ticket seems improbable, and whispers of a PDP courtship complicate matters. The PDP, despite internal strife, remains a powerhouse—but obstacles abound. FCT Minister Nyesom Wike wields ironclad control and openly backs Tinubu. Meanwhile, the PDP Governors’ Forum insists on one of their own for the top spot. With southern zoning in play, Oyo’s Seyi Makinde emerges as frontrunner, potentially paired with Bauchi’s Bala Muhammed. Reluctance from Makinde has sparked talk of luring back Goodluck Jonathan, but he demurs. Either way, Obi would struggle to navigate this labyrinth.
Staying with Labour Party? Risky—the factional splits cloud its legitimacy. Or seek a new platform? Possible, but Obi’s 2023 magic has faded. The EndSARS fury that mobilised youth, the Biafra agitation enforcing Southeast loyalty, and Christian backlash against the APC’s Muslim-Muslim ticket—all propelled his landslide in key regions. Today, those catalysts have dimmed. The Obidient movement, once a juggernaut, has lost steam and demands Obi as president, not deputy. Notably, his 2023 coattails were short: Labour candidates flopped in legislative races despite his presidential wins.
