The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise has projected that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product could reach $450 billion before the end of 2025, provided current reforms are not derailed by economic shocks.
This projection was contained in a statement signed by the CPPE Director, Dr Muda Yusuf, on the back of Nigeria’s recently rebased GDP data and first-quarter report for 2025.
According to Yusuf, “There’s room for cautious optimism. If the reform momentum continues without major disruption, the economy could close the year at $450 billion.”
The latest GDP analysis showed 37 sectors recorded growth—though many slowed—while nine sectors contracted and three are in recession. The economy grew by 3.13 percent in Q1 2025, a slight drop from 3.38 percent in 2024.
Strong performers included financial services, oil refining, transportation, ICT, and metal ores. On the other hand, sectors like livestock, textiles, coal mining, and plastics posted negative figures. Air transport, textiles, and coal mining are now officially in recession after several consecutive quarters of decline.
Dr Yusuf said urgent attention was needed. “Sectors that are shrinking or in recession require targeted policy support. We need to tackle structural issues, improve access to finance, deal with insecurity, and encourage innovation.”
He also flagged the mismatch between the non-oil sector’s dominance in GDP and its weak contribution to public revenue. “The non-oil sector accounts for over 96 percent of GDP, yet its revenue yield is not matching up. This calls for tax reform, better administration, and wider formalisation.”
Nigeria’s nominal GDP, as of 2024, was N372.82 trillion—up 41 percent from 2019. Total output for Q1 2025 stood at N94 trillion, bringing the cumulative GDP to about N466 trillion or $300 billion.
The CPPE emphasised that agriculture, manufacturing, and trade must be prioritised. These sectors, critical for jobs and economic inclusion, are underperforming, growing by just 0.7 and 1.7 percent respectively in the last quarter.
“The agriculture sector grew modestly, but well below what is needed for food security,” the statement said. “Manufacturing is still struggling with low productivity and weak infrastructure. These sectors must be unlocked.”
Real estate climbed to third place among contributors to GDP, behind crop production and trade. Others include ICT, construction, food and beverage, and petroleum. The oil sector contributed just 3.97 percent to GDP.
CPPE called for more frequent GDP rebasing to ensure that the figures guiding government policy reflect real economic activity. “Reliable and up-to-date data is essential. The National Bureau of Statistics deserves credit for this milestone,” Yusuf said.
