Turkey is weighing a request from Ukraine to block Russian warships from entering the Black Sea through a strategic chokepoint, Turkey’s foreign minister said, highlighting a strategic dilemma for Ankara, a member of NATO that also has ties to Russia.
Turkey’s decision hinges on how it chooses to implement a 1936 treaty, the Montreux Convention, which grants Ankara control over the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, the only access point to the Black Sea.
Turkish officials are now working to make a legal determination as to whether a “state of war” currently exists in the region, which would allow Turkey to block some ships from countries fighting in the war, Turkey’s foreign minister said in remarks published Friday by Turkey’s Hurriyet newspaper.
If Ankara rules that there is a state of war, it could block warships from parties to the conflict, but could only stop ships that aren’t based in the Black Sea. Vessels originating in the Black Sea would still have the right of passage through the straits, said Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu.
Under the treaty, Turkey would have to block ships from both Russia and Ukraine, but since Ukraine has no coastline other than on the Black Sea, the decision would ultimately only affect Russian warships based outside the region. Russia built up a significant force in the Black Sea prior to the attack on Ukraine, but Moscow could decide to move in additional ships.
The Russian assault on Ukraine amplifies pressure on Turkey after years in which President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has developed a close relationship with Russia’s Vladimir Putin despite Turkey’s membership in NATO and its efforts to oppose Russian influence in the region. In recent years Mr. Erdogan has authorized purchases of Russian weapons while also sending Turkish forces and arms to battle Russian proxies in wars in Syria, Libya and the Caucasus region.
Russian warships and a submarine that cruised through the Bosphorus Strait at the heart of Istanbul in recent weeks became an ominous sign of a war that is also likely to hurt Turkey’s already struggling economy.
Barring additional Russian warships from entering the Black Sea could anger Russia, potentially causing the Kremlin to challenge Turkey’s historic control over the straits as enshrined in the Montreux Convention, experts say.
“I imagine the Russians would raise hell over that and abrogate the convention. I don’t think Turkey would want that eventuality,” said Alper Coşkun, a former senior Turkish diplomat and now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
Turkey has largely sided with Ukraine during the recent crisis, selling Kyiv armed drones and condemning the Russian attack as a violation of Ukrainian sovereignty. The Russian assault on Ukraine could force Turkey to take an even more decisive stance against Russia, those familiar with Turkish diplomacy say.
