By OBSERVERS TIMES
The grand coalition envisioned to challenge President Bola Tinubu’s grip on power in 2027 is fracturing, not with a bang, but with a whimper of defections and strategic confusion. As the political landscape shifts dramatically, the opposition, once brimming with confidence, now appears to be reeling from self-inflicted blows.
The All Progressives Congress (APC), despite facing a wave of public discontent over economic reforms, is witnessing an unprecedented influx of opposition figures. This migration, far from being a mere trickle, is reshaping the political terrain, casting a long shadow over the opposition’s ambitions.
Former President Atiku Abubakar and Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, spearheaded the charge for a united front, banking on public frustration to fuel their campaign. Their strategy hinged on consolidating opposition governors and leveraging their state-level influence. However, their calculations have been spectacularly upended.
Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori’s defection to the APC, accompanied by the state’s entire PDP structure and former Vice-Presidential candidate Ifeanyi Okowa, sent shockwaves through the opposition ranks. This seismic shift, coupled with the exodus of National Assembly members from the PDP, Labour Party (LP), and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), has left the Atiku-led group scrambling to salvage its crumbling foundation.
El-Rufai’s assertion that the coalition could thrive without governors, relying solely on direct voter mobilization, rings hollow to many analysts. They point to the APC’s own 2015 victory, a feat achieved through a potent alliance of influential governors and political heavyweights.
The parallels between Atiku’s coalition and the APC’s formation are striking. Both sought to unite disparate factions under a common banner. However, the APC’s success stemmed from a shared ideology and a clear leadership structure, with Muhammadu Buhari as its undisputed presidential candidate.
Atiku’s coalition, in contrast, grapples with internal discord and a lack of unified vision. The Social Democratic Party’s (SDP) rejection of a merger deal has further complicated matters, leaving the coalition without a clear political platform. The looming question of who will lead the coalition’s presidential charge, Atiku or Peter Obi, threatens to ignite further internal strife.
Babachir Lawal, a key figure in the coalition, attempts to downplay the defections, dismissing the PDP as a “non-factor.” However, the reality on the ground paints a different picture. The steady erosion of support from key political figures is undeniably weakening the coalition’s foundation.
Political analyst Prof. Chris Nwokobia remains optimistic, predicting a formidable opposition alliance will emerge. However, veteran politician Buba Galadima dismisses the coalition as a gathering of self-serving individuals, destined to fail.
Prof. Adele Jinadu, a former president of the International Political Science Association, offers a sobering assessment, warning that the pursuit of self-interest will plunge the nation into political chaos. He urges politicians to prioritize the public good, a virtue sorely lacking in the current political climate.
As the 2027 elections draw closer, the opposition’s dream of a united front is rapidly dissolving. The defections, the internal discord, and the lack of a coherent strategy are all contributing to a sense of disarray. With each passing day, the odds of unseating Tinubu appear to be diminishing, leaving the opposition scrambling to salvage what remains of its crumbling ambitions.
