Some factors that led to the outcome of the elections, in my own opinion, are as follows:
1. The APC primaries.
Result of the APC primaries where Obaseki was disqualified by the Uzodinma-led committee, thought to have been puppeteered by Oshiomole, was to be the genesis of the problem of the party. This singular act was the storm that rocked the boat from start to finish. Some APC governors and some quarters of the presidency were disappointed at the outcome. Obaseki, feeling shortchanged, crosscarpeted to the opposition to the delight of some of his APC colleagues.
2. The Presidency
Obaseki’s humility and obsequities demonstrated by visiting the presidency to complain about the treatment meted on him had an important factor to play in the presidency’s presumed neutrality. This polarized the support for the parties in Aso rock.
3. The Oba of Benin.
The Oba of Benin typified an unsentimental father. Despite several attempts to tempt him into taking sides, he did what every responsible father should do. He called both sides, scolded them and urged them to be civil iterating his position as that of his subjects. As a venerated and highly revered traditional leader the world over, he demonstrated politic and unparalleled wisdom by standing aloof.
4. The Elites
Pundits pointed out how several of Edo’s elites maintained a neutral ground for the first time in state issues leaving the people to decide their fate conscientiously. One of such people is the former chairman of the APC, Oyegun. He, being a supporter of Obaseki, was rather disappointed at the treatment meted on Obaseki and his subsequent crosscarpeting to the opposition in protest. His neutral stand, some believe, was a nod for Obaseki.
5. The Wike, Bello and Ganduje influence.
The introduction of Wike in the equation gave an added impetus to the fight and changed the overall coloration of the polity. Wike’s often metallic voice, fierce looks and his witty retort against the opposition gave the party confidence to forge ahead, and to a large extend, whittled the powers of the APC.
The same, however, cannot be said of the two supposed “fixers” sent by the APC as their best strikers: Yahaya Bello of Kogi state and Ganduje, popularly called Gandollar, of Kano state. While the popular opinion is that of Yahaya Bello overseeing one of the worst elections in Nigeria that witnessed blood shed and horror that most would prefer to keep behind them, coupled with his subsequent controversial Supreme Court judgment, he was only able to court repulsive and nauseating attention. Gandollar on the other hand attracted a lot of caricature and a billboard video of his infamous stuffing of dollars into his agbada.
6. The voters.
Edo state is divided into South, Central and North politically. Obaseki and ize iyamu are both from South, the majority. Oshiomole and Philip Shaibu are from North, considered as minority. The majority were contented with their son as governor and felt deprecated by the thought of Oshiomole commandeering them being a minority. The ego in them felt oshiomole had no right to lord it over them after they had considered him during his tenure and gave a hundred percent of their votes to return him.
On the other hand, in the north, having fallen out with the party structure in his ward and suspended, oshiomole had very little influence there. Philip, however, gained more prominence and traction as the scale tilted towards him. It became a case of dividing votes between the two sons. One accepted, the other controversially rejected.
The people of ishan, Edo central, played a very vital role as well. Obaseki having promised them power after his tenure captured their hearts. With this promise, the came to the compromise of having him finish his 4year term and struggling it out later. If they had let ize iyamu, they thought he would have 8 long years and nobody would want that option given the two. They skewed towards Obaseki’s offer.
7. The security and power of incumbency.
The security operatives, unlike the Kogi state elections scenario, found themselves between two big wigs from which to draw their orders. During the Kogi ballots, it was a one way traffic where the presidency and the state government were both incumbent and channeled their orders towards the same goal. There was very little the opposition could do. Edo state, however, was not so. The governor had security operatives answerable to him, both private and contemporary police, NSCDC, Army and he used them effectively. The presidency had their arms akimbo peering through and watching the remains of Oshiomole scattered to tatters. Make no mistake, if the presidency wished for the election to take a different shade, it would have. Policemen and other regimented uniform men do not act without orders. This is why after their actions, nobody is persecuted.
8. International community
The recent visa ban haunted the players like a sword of damocle. It was like a warning before been evicted. Make no mistake, 90% of these politicians prefer medical sojourn abroad, in the UK and US, than anywhere else. A ban would mean they can’t access their health care and ultimately may die and they do not fancy that option. The presidency wasn’t immune to this as well. This played a mighty big factor in the outcome of the election.
9. Philip Shaibu: the Joker.
Before the Edo election, little was known of this political effervescent decision maker. It is believed that without the input of this political maverick, Obaseki would have long been out of the race. Having fallen out with his former boss, Oshiomole, he decided against all odds to still pitch tent with Obaseki urging him on when others abandoned the ship. A clever young man with the rare power of clairvoyance, he managed the situation with great tact and audacity. Philip was the amulet that was used to demystify oshiomole and led him like a cow to its death politically.
In conclusion, the Edo election is the true picture of how elections would have turned out in Nigeria balloting system should external influences be taken off. It is imperative that we begin a new chapter as a people where our collective decisions via the ballot will lead to the change we yarn for. Every citizen in Nigeria should be proud of the people of Edo state and respect them for setting the pace for future free and fair elections.
PS:
This young man, James, the painter, painted this in Edo state. They are not only politically savvy, but are also talented in other fields.
By Dr. Okeme Arome
State Secretary,
SDP, Kogi state.