For now the leading aspirants are Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, V P Osinbajo, Gov Fayemi, Rotimi Amaechi with Tinubu in a commanding lead over others in all the geopolitical zones across the country.
Although, the progressives governors and some powerful forces in presidency are well against him but they lack the number and spread to stop him, also they are divided among themselves as they couldn’t forge or present common ground.
Let’s examine the happening in the Six geopolitical Zones.
South West, This is Asiwaju’s zone and he would sweep all the state delegates here except in Ekiti that would be share between him and Gov. Fayemi. Sen Babafemi Ojodu, Sen Bamidele Opeyemi are Tinubu footsoldiers in the state ready to battle Fayemi for Jagaban.
Though, VP Osinbajo is from the region but he won’t contest against Tinubu under any circumstances except if Tinubu step down for him but presently things doesn’t look so. The VP would stand by Tinubu to the end.
South East. Tinubu have a slight edge above others in this zone.
His key men are Gov. Hope, Chris Ngigi, Ken Nnami. Also, recently. The caretaker committee declared Gov Hope as the leader of the party in the zone. Amaechi and others may pick few delegates here.
South South. This is another comfortable zone for Tinubu, he may likely win all the state delegates here except in Rivers where Amaechi hails from but the likes of Sen Abe would deliver some delegates to Tinubu in the state.
All the gladiators of the party in the region are Tinubu’s men. Oshomole in Edo, Akpabio in Akwa Ibom, Silver in Bayelsa and Deputy Senate President Delta state.
North Central. Niger, Kwara, Benue. Nasarawa are all going for Tinubu with gladiators like Sen. Akume taking charge of the zone. Plateau state may queue behind Amaechi or Gov. Fayemi but it depends on how things play out at the end.
Kogi state delegates may be free for all but in the event the governor realised he is alone in the wilderness and make a volte-face. The governor may switch to the popular side, of course Tinubu camp to save face.
North East. This zone is a settled case as far as Tinubu men are concern. Almost all the gladiators in the party from the zone have settled for Jagaban. Gov Babagana Zullum, Senate President Ahmed Lawan are leading Tinubu’s supports from the zone. Many believed Gov. Buni would soon openly declare for Tinubu.
North West. This is the largest zone with the highest delegates in the country. Tinubu is well comfortable in this zone having secured the supports of key gladiators from the area. Kano, Sokoto, Katsina are all jagaban. He will also share Kebbi, Jigawa, Kaduna and Zamfara. But in all Tinubu is leading comfortably.
Gov Ganduje, Sen Wamako, Gov Masari are leading Tinubu war front in the zone.
The former Lagos state governor is well ahead of others in the battle for the party presidential ticket in 2023.
Although, the anti Tinubu forces are also not resting to see that Tinubu doesn’t make it to the end. But as things look by the day, their efforts may be in futility as there is no law in stop him for now except if found guilty and convicted by a competent law court.
Tinubu is as good as being declared APC presidential candidate .except if he step down for another aspirant possibly VP Osinbajo and I doubt if that is on the table for now.
…Abdulmalik Suleiman