As the election nears, the contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains extremely close, with recent polling indicating a virtual dead heat. Over the past week, at least six surveys show Harris holding a narrow advantage, while three others report a slight lead for Trump. Key swing states are showing nearly identical support for both candidates.
In a CNBC survey released Thursday, Trump leads Harris 48% to 46% among registered voters, with a margin of error of 3.1%. A Wall Street Journal poll, published Wednesday, also shows Trump ahead, 47% to 45% (margin of error 2.5%). This marks a shift in Trump’s favor since August when Harris led 47% to 45% in a similar Journal survey.
Nationally, Trump holds a two-point lead among likely voters, 51% to 49%, according to a HarrisX/Forbes poll released Wednesday (margin of error 2.5%). Another survey from the same day indicates Trump is up one point, 49% to 48%, when excluding leaners.
However, several polls indicate Harris is still in contention. A Monmouth University poll conducted from October 17-21 shows Harris ahead 47% to 44% among respondents who plan to vote. Harris also leads by three points, 49% to 46%, in an Economist/YouGov survey of likely voters, although this is a slight drop from previous polling.
In a Morning Consult weekly poll released Tuesday, Harris maintains a four-point lead, 50% to 46%, consistent with the previous week but down from a 51%-45% lead in earlier polls. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from the same day shows Harris with a three-point advantage, 46% to 43%, although this is within the poll’s margin of error.
Additional surveys reflect a similar trend: Harris leads by one point in a USA Today/Suffolk University poll and holds a narrow one-point edge in Emerson College’s poll of likely voters.
Despite these fluctuations, Harris has managed to erase Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21. However, her advantage has decreased slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average.
Current Election Forecasts
FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast gives Trump a slight edge, predicting he is favored to win 51 out of 100 simulations compared to Harris’s 49. Political analyst Nate Silver also indicates a narrow lead for Trump at 52.8% to 46.9%, noting the unusual closeness of this race.
Swing State Dynamics
In key battleground states, Harris leads in Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, while Trump is ahead in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. The two candidates are essentially tied in Pennsylvania, with all states showing margins within single digits, indicating a competitive race.
Demographic Insights
An NBC News poll from late September revealed that while Harris continues to lead Trump among Latino voters, her support is diminishing. The poll found 54% of Latino voters backing Harris compared to 40% for Trump, a significant decrease from previous election cycles.
Debate Impact
Pre-debate polls suggested Harris’s momentum had plateaued, with a NPR/PBS/Marist survey showing her leading Trump 49% to 48%. Post-debate feedback indicated that most respondents believed Harris performed better in the debate, although it did not significantly shift the overall race dynamics.
Following a tumultuous campaign, President Biden exited the race on July 21, endorsing Harris, who swiftly garnered overwhelming support from Democratic delegates. Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, shortly after Trump announced Ohio Senator JD Vance as his vice-presidential pick. Since Harris’s entry into the race, enthusiasm among Democratic voters has surged, nearly doubling from 46% in June to 85% now, while Republican enthusiasm has remained steady at 71%.
