This is not USA 94 World cup, rather I have used a mathematical model to establish that there is some level of correlation between the growth rate of this virus in Nigeria and Italy. I have developed a mathematical model which followed a polynomial pattern of order 3. The model equation and the graph are as presented:
y = 0.6147×3 – 3.8968×2 + 6.0673x
Where X is the number of days to be used to forecast the virus growth.
From the equation, in the next 15 days, if no cogent measures are taken, the confirmed cases of coronavirus in Nigeria will grow to 33,349 which has some similarity with that of Italy. This equation can be used to estimate for any day to help in estimating manpower, logistics and budgeting.
Areas of Concern
1. What are the similarities.
– 22 days after the first case was confirmed in Italy, Italy had only 20 cases but Nigeria had 22 cases,
– Two Chinese tourist brought the virus to Italy, while one Italian brought the virus to Nigeria.
2. Harmful Culture Helped Spread the Virus
– Italians greet by shaking hands, two kisses (first on the right cheek and second on the left cheek) and a hug. All these helped in spreading the virus.
– Nigerians greet by shaking hands,some eat from the same plate and share many things in common. These will also helped in spreading the virus. Need for suspending some of our cultural practices.
3. Demography of the two countries
– In Italy, 42.1% of those infected by the virus are female and 57.9% are male. More males are infected by the virus.
– 75.6% of those infected by the virus are 50 years and above.
– 98.9% of deaths recorded are among those who are 50 years and above.
– Data not available for Nigeria but if you are 50 years and above, be more careful.
4/ Medical Facilities Available to Manage the Virus
– Italy has community testing centers and they are testing even those that have not shown symptoms of the virus. This action is reducing the spread of the virus. Nigeria has only four testing Laboratories for a population of 200 million.
– Italy has 33.4 hospital beds for every 10,000 people while Nigeria has only 5 hospital beds for every 10,000. We may think of converting schools and other public buildings into temporary hospital in case of an epidemic.
– Italy has 42 doctors per 10,000 while Nigeria has 4 doctors per 10,000 persons. We may need support if it turns epidemic.
5. Actions Taken by two Countries
– The Council of Ministers in Italy approved a decree and the military were directed to lockdown and quarantine what they called the red zones. Penalties ranges from $245 to 3 months imprisonment. Places of worship, markets, clubs, restaurants etc all shutdown
– Nigeria has banned gathering of not more than 50 persons,partial shutdown of Fed Govt agencies, and closing of schools. Some states are yet to cascade these in their states. Nigeria has no penalty and the enforcement is poor.
This information is not meant to create fear but to prepare us combat this unknown enemy.
While we expect the Federal, States and Local Governments to start planning for an epidemic and multinational companies to demonstrate kind social responsibility through intervention funds, we as citizens must maintain social distance, stop gatherings, occasions and do self isolation.
Stay safe and keep washing your hands.
May God keep us safe.
_ Dr. Nentawe Yilwatda Goshwe