By Muhammad Mamman
Nigeria’s 2025 Federal Budget is under significant pressure due to lower-than-expected crude oil production in the first half of 2025, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). The budget, reliant on oil revenue, was based on a production target of 2.06 million barrels per day (bpd) at $75 per barrel and an exchange rate of N1,500/$. However, NUPRC data shows output averaged between 1.60 and 1.74 million bpd from January to June, with Bonny Light prices at $71.73 in June, well below projections.
Experts warn that persistent issues, including pipeline vandalism, oil theft, and underinvestment, continue to hamper production. Wumi Iledare, Professor Emeritus at the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, described the budget’s assumptions as “unrealistically optimistic,” urging a more robust budgeting process. BudgIT’s Vahyala Kwaga noted that global oil price volatility and structural challenges in Nigeria’s oil sector make meeting targets unlikely, recommending cost-cutting and boosting non-oil revenue.
The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) highlighted that without urgent reforms to enhance security, incentivise investment, and streamline regulations, the 2.06 million bpd target remains unattainable. While global oil prices may stabilise, fiscal shortfalls loom, necessitating bold policy measures to ensure economic stability in the second half of 2025
