It is day break in Nigeria as the biggest political event ahead of 2023 presidential election is now gathering momentum.
Just like most Nigerians are coaches outside the field of play especially if the football match is not going in their favour so, we are now witnessing an era where virtually everyone is a political analyst talking tough and predicting the outcome of the 2023 Presidential Election .
Though, no one sees tomorrow to be one hundred percent sure of prediction however, some of these predictions coming from great Nigerians to include: Artisans, Business Men & Women, Political Analysts, great men of God and many other professionals as well as non – professionals alike are based on either their share of sentiment and experiences.
It is against this background that the Author of this article, Sani Michael Omakoji, of #OurWorldGist captures the political temperature of the 2023 presidential election highlighting the Suspense, Drama, Betrayal & the Eventual Winner.
According to, Sani Michael Omakoji , his political forecast might not be one hundred percent realistic like any other prediction but he stressed that he shall use the past and, presence political events in Nigeria since 1999 to present his analysis.
Let us therefore read, Sani Michael Omakoji’s presentation on the so much talked about 2023 presidential election in Nigeria.
” This article titled “the political humidity of 2023 presidential election …” is a germane one that requires a wide range of research to occupy not less than twenty pages of fourteen font size, but I, Sani Michael Omakoji, shall use my sense of “language communication” to limit the write-up to at most five pages of fourteen font size.
However, before I proceed on the most anticipated political event in Nigeria, which is 2023 presidential election, let me say that, I, Sani Michael Omakoji, the Author of this article, do not intend to rubbish or talk down on the numerous opinions that have been made and would be made by political experts and non – experts alike, but, with careful observation of the political events in the past which formed the determinant factors, I shall present my analysis.
While we are all eager to read the paragraph where I shall make mention of who will win 2023 presidential election in Nigeria, let us bear in mind that over the years in Nigeria because of the growing knowledge, bad leadership leading to nepotism and regionalism, which caused us our unity, issues like: neglect, marginalization, tribalism, bigotry amongst others now form some talking points.
Though, I do not want to dwell much on the above variables as they shall form topics for another day, but let me say without fear or favour that because of the variables above – affecting the unity of our sovereign Nation, Nigeria, a typical Northerner in Nigeria today sees a southerners and Easterners as foreigners even as many of the Northerners also see Westerners as betrayals.
And because of this established fact, most Northerners feel that giving an opportunity to an Igbo man, or an Ijaw man to man number seat in Nigeria is like giving their “birthright” to a foreigner to occupy, the same way a typical Northerner sees a Yoruba man as a betrayal who cannot conceal secret, he or she cannot be trusted with number seat.
This is the reason why since President Olusegun Aremu Obasanjo, of Yoruba speaking extraction, who ruled Nigeria between 1999 to 2007, the Northerners have consistently continued to lead the bragging rights for number seat in Nigeria.
One interesting thing about Northerners is that, they know how to use other regions to drive home their so-called “birthright”.
For example, when Late Musa Yar’dua, of the Peoples Democratic Party ( PDP ), occupying the number seat for the turn of the Northern region died, the Northerners intelligently formed alliance with some notable figures from other regions of Nigeria under the platform of All Progressive Congress ( APC ), to oust out an Ijaw man, Former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, of PDP.
What is working for this people call Northerners?
Well, events had shown that, they are not as intelligent as the other crop of peoples from the other regions in Nigeria but one thing you cannot take it away from them is that, they are politically smarter; they have numeric advantage (population), and most importantly, the institution is structured in their favour and that is why both ‘Chicken’ and ‘goat’ alike plus children below the age of eighteen actively participate in an election unhindered to vote massively for one particular candidate of their choice.
Fast-forward into 2023 presidential election.
Let me state it here that going into 2023 presidential election in Nigeria, we have over twenty presidential Candidates claiming to be jostling for the number position, but for the purpose of this article, I, Sani Michael Omakoji, the Author of this article will consider four serious minded candidates to include Mr Peter Obi of Labour Party ( LP ), Alhaji Engr Musa Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigerian Peoples Party ( NNPP ), Alhaji Ahmed Bola Asiwaju Tinubu, of All Progressive Congress ( APC ), and Alhaji Abubakar Atiku of the Peoples Democratic Party ( PDP ).
My choice of these candidates is decisive and strategic because I am aware that some of these Presidential Candidates not recognized in this article are either out for plea bargaining or to grow their profiles that they have been one time presidential candidates before.
As it is in Nigeria today, the APC who controls government at the centre has twenty one Governors while the PDP, the main opposition party has fifteen Governors
It is also a statement of fact that after Governor Mimiko Agagu of Ondo State dumped LP for PDP in 2014, Labour Party is yet to produce another Governor and as it is, Labour Party has no sitting Governor same way the NNPP has no sitting Governor.
Be that as it may, owing to the political humidity building up ahead of the 2023 presidential election, the status quo cum the narrative is ‘shacking’ though, ‘not formidable enough to be a complete departure from the past outcome of the election results’.
Although, Labour Party is featuring Peter Obi without a sitting Governor, but it is worthy of note that the party is not just representing the choice of the most Easterners but is also the first choice of the most elites in Nigeria.
Having said that, the question now is that: what is the population of these elites plus Easterners combined compare to those Huasa/ Fulani who will travel from Lokoja to Maiduguri, Kano, Sokoto, Bauchi, Kaduna Jigawa and other Northern parts of the country during election to vote for a particular candidate of their choice?
Remember I mentioned that the Northerners have the numeric advantage of the population over other parts of Nigeria.
Sentimentally, when it comes to supporting a particular candidate of their own, they kick away the party and adopt the person in any political party of their choice.
For example, when they ( Northerners ) wanted to kick away Former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, of PDP away out of the power, they massively voted for the present president of Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari, of APC even though PDP hitherto controlled most Northern states as many Nigerians accused PDP’s National Chairman then along his kinsmen of playing anti-party game in favour of their brother President Muhammadu Buhari.
Now will this narrative change in 2023 presidential election that they will prefer Ahmed Bola Asiwaju Tinubu of APC or Mr Peter Obi of LP to Atiku Abubakar of PDP or to Alhaji Engr Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of NNPP?
Note, Atiku Abubakar of PDP and Alhaji Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, are both from the North but with the rate of defections from APC to PDP mostly in the North, it is perceived that most Northerners have resolved to vote for Atiku Abubakar of PDP.
Will the vote from the North alone be enough to coast home Atiku Abubakar the much-needed victory he desires under the platform of PDP?
The answer is capital NO, but before I draw a conclusion what will shape the victory and why, let us read how suspense, drama and the betrayal would play out in the 2023 presidential election.
Following Atiku Abubakar’s choice of the running mate that many political observers felt Governor Nysome Wike was not treated fairly or adequately compensated, they will be news in the media that Wike will decamp from PDP to either APC or LP.
This rears its head recently when Wike flew from Turkey to Paris for a reason not officially disclosed, but it was allegedly reported in the media that Governor Wike actually flew from Turkey to Paris to have a close door meeting with the APC’s flag bearer, Ahmed Bola Tinubu.
Whether the report was true or not, it is one of the numerous suspense we are likely to witness ahead of the 2023 presidential election.
With the massive acceptance of Permanent Voters’ Register ( PVC ), by Nigerians, the suspense is expected to rise as many believe that is a revolution for Peter Obi of Labour Party who is described by many as President Emmanuel Macron of France.
Again, whether Independent National Electoral Commission ( INEC ), would make these PVCs readily available ahead of the 2023 presidential election, only time shall tell as most Nigerians who registered for PVC since 2018 are yet to get it.
Also, it is germane to point out here that, the ongoing defections mostly from APC to PDP in the Northern region is part of the drama ahead of the 2023 presidential election.
One wonders what has really changed in the political climate that since Atiku Abubakar, of PDP became the presidential flag bearer, the carpet crossings mostly in the Northern region of Nigeria have been tremendous!
Amidst of all these happenings, there shall be betrayal that would cause major upset.
How will this going to play out?
Well, just like Ahmed Bola Tinubu, of APC and Atiku Abubakar of PDP depend heavily on vote buying to win 2023 presidential election, the Northerners who love showing support and solidarity to their own will collect Ahmed Bola Tinubu’s money and still go ahead to vote against him.
Perhaps, what Governor Tambawa did recently when PDP had their presidential primaries to pave wave for his king’s Man, Atiku Abubakar, is still fresh in the minds of Nigerians and that happened despite the total support Wike gave Governor Tambawa in 2019 presidential election.
The scenario might still happen as Alhaji Musa Rabiu Kwankwaso, of NNPP might still step down for Atiku Abubakar of PDP at the dying minute
This insinuation of mine is coming on the eve that is, 3/07/2022 when Engr Musa Rabiu Kwankwaso, said on Channels TV that the Northern voters will not vote for a candidate from the South East as President due to ‘realities on ground’, and that’s the primary reason why he wouldn’t want to be Vice President candidate to Mr Obi of Labour Party adding that “that they would both loose”.
The statement above by Engr Musa Rabiu Kwankwaso, of NNPP has more meaning than it simply appears.
As such, I won’t be surprised if the Northerners following Tinubu to campaign under the platform of APC still go behind to do anti-party in favour of Atiku Abubakar of PDP.
One more fact I need to talk about before I declare the winner of the 2023 presidential election is the SWOT analysis of the four gladiators under consideration.
By SWOT analysis, I mean to refer to the Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Threats of the four candidates.
In no other of their capacity, let us highlight them as stated below:
Peter Obi of LP’s Strength will come from the new crop of voters who are mostly elites and youths eager to vote him while his weakness as already noticed is lack of his party’s structure at the local levels which is going to limit his opportunity and posing threat of winning 2023 presidential election
In addition, the agitation by Indigenous Peoples of Biafra ( IPOB ), leading to incessant seat at home order in the Eastern part of the country if not controlled might pose a serious threat to Mr Peter Obi, who is anticipated to get a substantial vote from the region.
Engr Musa Rabiu Kwankwaso of NNPP, a noiseless politician will have his strength from numerous homes in Nigeria whom he has empowered to be experts in one field or the others while his weakness majorly is lack of finance to expand his campaign outside Kano and this will also limit his opportunity and thereby poses threat of him winning 2023 presidential election.
Ahmed Bola Tinubu, of APC’s strength will be that he has the needed resource to advance his course and his party also controls the majority of the states in Nigeria amounting to twenty-one and this will brighten his chances of winning 2023 election however, this opportunity can be lost as the Northern elements in APC who are ready to betray him might pose the threat that will deny him of winning 2023 presidential election and similarly, his health challenge could be another major obstacle to his course.
Atiku Abubakar, of PDP like Ahmed Bola Tinubu drives his strength from the fact that he has the resource to advance his course with some Northern Elements in APC working for him while his weakness is the fact that his party PDP controls fifteen states compared to the APC that controls twenty-one states while his opportunity hinges on the fact he has the advantage of getting more votes from South-South and South-East compare to Ahmed Bola Tinubu of APC, Rabiu Kwankwaso of NNPP but not the same with Peter Obi of LP and the threat might be if Kwankwaso of NNPP refuses to step down as that might affect his block votes from the North.
Again, the issues of banditry and kidnapping which are now daily transactions in most parts of the North if not brought under control by 2023 presidential election might cause voters apartheid and the implication of that is that, it will affect Atiku Abubakar’s expected block vote.
Having said all of these, this is how the statistics of the overall votes would look like.
Peter Obi of LP’s vote will come from the elites and youths across Nigeria, and Easterners in Lagos irrespective of their age or status, and this development is going to affect Ahmed Bola Tinubu’s expected block vote from the South – West.
Again, will this vote be enough to stop Hausa/Fulani ‘s vote who are not on social media but however vote for a particular candidate of their choice?
I have ninety-nine percent doubt here!
Engr Musa Rabiu Kwankwaso, of NNPP ‘s vote will come mostly from Kano, his hometown and some families he has trained their wards.
Again, will this anticipated vote from Kano and some families in Nigeria be enough to win 2023 presidential election?
Here again, I have ninety-nine percent doubt if such vote can give him victory.
Allegedly, it is circulating in the media already that Kwankwaso, is doing the bidding for Atiku Abubakar, of the PDP and that he is going to step down at the tale end of the campaign.
Ahmed Bola Tinubu of APC’s vote is going to come from south – West but Peter Obi’s factor in Lagos and that of Governor Makinde of the PDP in Oyo would affect his block vote from the south – west, while vote buying would help him to get some votes from other parts of Nigeria but with exception to the North who are ready to betray him even though his party , the APC controls most states in the North.
Again, will this development help Ahmed Bola Tinubu to win 2023 presidential election?
Again, the betrayal game by some Northerners in APC is going to cause major upset for Ahmed Bola Tinubu’s victory.
Finally, we have come along way in this analysis and from the forgoing, Atiku Abubakar of PDP’s vote that would come from the North , South-South and some part of South-East would be sufficient to win him 2023 presidential election.
This article as Authored by Sani Michael Omakoji , of #OurWorldGist must not be reproduced or used anywhere without the kind permission of the Author or due acknowledgement to the Author.
Sani Michael Omakoji ,is a Business Developer, and a public affairs Analyst combined with a wide range of experience in Blogging, Finance, Administration, International Business, Corporate Planning, Accounting, Real Estate Management, Hospitality, Economy, Politics and social issues.
To reach out to him, you email him: Omakogibizventures@gmail.com or you tweet at him @Omakogi1
